Executive Summary
MCH Supply Chain — June 2026. Decision-grade view: traffic-light KPIs, network pulse, ranked risks & opportunities, and stress-tested scenarios.
Revenue run rate
$211.3M / yr
Annualized from current customer-volume × basket size.
Monthly throughput
2.54M cases/month
Factory output across 3 plants, OEE-adjusted.
End-to-end yield
88.4%
Volume reaching customer ÷ factory production.
State of the Business
Service Level (OTIF)
Average across all distributors. 95% is the contractual SLA floor.
End-to-end Yield
Volume reaching customer ÷ factory output. Captures DC, distributor, ship-to losses.
Stock-out Rate
Share of (SKU × DC) cells at zero. Direct revenue leak — every 1pp ≈ -$120k/mo.
Network Pulse — Factory to Customer
0 plants · 0 in-flight orders · 0k units planned
94.5% fill · 20.5h dwell · 64 dock doors
DC Mekong utilization >85% — capacity headroom thinning
91.3% OTIF · 0 active distributors · 32 late PO lines
32 POs past expected ship date
93.0% on-time avg · 2.0d lead
10 stores · stock-out 30.0%
GT outlets driving stock-out concentration
$17.61M/mo · channel split unavailable
Top Risks−$2.79M / mo at stake
Mekong distributor OTIF below SLA (88%)
−$180k→ Penalty review + dual-source ST-CT-1 via SouthMart for Q3.
HCMC plant single-point-of-failure (55% of South DC inbound)
−$2.40M→ Approve $4.2M capex for BD plant capacity uplift; cut HCMC reliance to 40%.
Forecast accuracy below 85% target on Sauce category
−$95k→ Re-tune Chinsu/Nam Ngu models with Tet calendar features (in flight).
GT channel stock-out concentration (3 of 4 outlets above 25%)
−$110k→ Pilot daily replenishment for top-20 GT outlets; budget $40k/mo route cost.
Top Opportunities+$710k / mo upside
Direct B2B channel expansion (D-DIRECT OTIF 99%)
+$340k→ Expand to 3 new urban hubs; payback < 4 months at current margin.
Premium segment basket lift via bundle promo
+$220k→ MT-only bundle Sauce + Noodle; Q3 trial in HCMC + Hanoi.
Reduce DC dwell time (current avg 20.5h → 14h target)
+$150k→ WMS slotting refresh at DC-N-HN and DC-S-HCM; small capex.
Stress-tested scenarios
Each card answers: "if this happened next quarter, what's the bottom line?" Drill into the Control Tower for stage-by-stage detail and custom what-ifs.
Tet demand surge
Q4/Q1 Tet seasonal +40% demand
+$7.04M/mo
+$7.04M/mo · +40.0% volume
HCMC plant outage
Force-majeure shutdown of F-HCM-01
−$7.78M/mo
$-7.78M/mo · -44.2% volume · ⚠ network would breach
DC fill-rate slip
All DCs lose 8pp fill rate
−$1.48M/mo
$-1.48M/mo · -8.4% volume
Distributor OTIF crisis
All distributors -10pp OTIF
−$1.87M/mo
$-1.87M/mo · -10.6% volume